Premier League 2024/2025 Teams Vulnerable to Set Pieces: A Contrarian Betting View

Set‑piece goals have risen sharply in the Premier League, with recent reporting pointing to more than a 30% increase in dead‑ball scoring compared with previous campaigns. In 2024/2025, that trend intersects with clear defensive frailties at specific clubs: some teams concede a disproportionate share of their goals from corners and free‑kicks, turning set‑piece defence into a structural leak rather than an occasional lapse. For bettors, those weaknesses create a logical lens for “betting against” vulnerable sides in both main and special markets, provided you understand how and when those leaks actually appear.

Why targeting set-piece weaknesses is a rational strategy

Dead‑ball situations compress the game into repeatable micro‑battles: marking assignments, blocking runs, second‑ball reactions, and goalkeeper positioning. Teams that consistently fail in these areas concede more than their fair share of goals from set pieces, and that pattern tends to persist until coaching, personnel, or scheme changes intervene. Because bookmakers still anchor a large part of their pricing in overall defensive numbers and league position, specific set‑piece frailties can remain under‑reflected in certain props for stretches of a season.

The impact goes beyond niche markets. If a side routinely ships goals from corners or wide free‑kicks, their ability to protect leads declines and their clean‑sheet probability drops, which influences Asian handicaps, “both teams to score,” and late in‑play odds when they are defending pressure. Thus, identifying and quantifying set‑piece defence problems is not a gimmick; it is a way to uncover a specific mismatch between team profile and market assumptions.

What the 2024/2025 data says about overall conceding profiles

Before isolating set pieces, it helps to see which teams are already struggling defensively in general. Comprehensive stat tables for 2024/2025 show Southampton at the bottom of the defensive rankings with 86 goals conceded, followed by Ipswich on 82 and Leicester on 80, all over 38 games. Other high‑conceding sides include clubs in the 60+ range, indicating sustained problems across open play and dead‑ball phases.

At the opposite end, Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City sit among the best for total goals conceded, with figures in the low‑to‑mid 30s and 40s for the campaign. Yet even some of these top defences have set‑piece blind spots; reports highlight that a significant percentage of Arsenal’s concessions in 2024/2025 arrive from dead‑ball situations, and later analysis points to Liverpool battling specific issues around second phases on corners under Arne Slot. This split between overall solidity and phase‑specific weakness is where contrarian opportunities often emerge.

Teams most exposed to set-piece goals in 2024/2025

Direct league‑wide tables for “goals conceded from set pieces” are scattered across data providers, but consistent threads appear in season reviews and specialist coverage. One widely shared stat highlights that Arsenal have allowed the highest percentage of their goals from set‑piece situations in 2024/2025, with about 38.7% of all concessions arriving via corners and free‑kicks, a rate significantly above the league average. Separate reporting later in the cycle shows Liverpool entering 2025/2026 with serious set‑piece issues, having conceded more dead‑ball goals than any other side in the early part of that campaign, emphasising how quickly this kind of weakness can develop when structures are off.

Additionally, discussion threads and analytical pieces draw attention to Nottingham Forest’s vulnerability, noting that they have conceded double‑digit set‑piece goals in a relatively short span, more than Liverpool at one point in a later season comparison. While Forest’s overall defensive numbers already show strain, this concentration of dead‑ball concessions reinforces the idea that their marking schemes and second‑phase reactions are subpar. Taken together, these examples show that both top‑four contenders and relegation fighters can sit among the worst set‑piece defenders for different underlying reasons.

Mechanisms behind poor set-piece defending

Weak set‑piece defending usually emerges from a combination of structural and personnel factors. Structurally, teams may rely heavily on man‑marking without adequate protection for screens and blocks, leading to mismatches or free runs at the ball. Others struggle with zonal schemes that collapse on first contact but fail to track second balls, conceding from rebounds after the initial header or clearance.

Personnel issues amplify these flaws. Sides with short or less dominant aerial defenders, hesitant goalkeepers, or frequent rotation at centre‑back lack the stability required to manage crowded penalty‑area situations. Over a long season, these problems manifest as repeated concessions from similar patterns—far‑post overloads, blocked markers, or unchallenged second‑phase shots—which bettors can learn to recognise and price into their own decisions ahead of the market.

Using UFABET to operationalise “betting against” weak set-piece sides

For bettors who already concentrate their Premier League action within a familiar digital hub, set‑piece analysis becomes actionable only when it leads to specific market choices. When a known set‑piece‑weak team faces an opponent with strong dead‑ball output—such as Arsenal or Brentford in 2024/2025 or other clubs highlighted in specialist rankings—you can deliberately scan the under‑served corners of the market, not just the match‑winner line. If you run those bets through ufabet168, the practical edge comes from using its range of markets—team corners, “goal from a set piece,” “defender to score,” method‑of‑goal props—as reflections of your structural read on the matchup, rather than as spontaneous add‑ons; across a season, that shift from impulse to targeted exploitation often separates casual play from a coherent anti‑set‑piece strategy.

Building a simple comparison table to spot exploitable fixtures

To avoid relying on memory alone, you can build a basic table that categorises teams by both set‑piece defence and opponent set‑piece attack quality. Even without exact goals‑conceded figures for every club at your fingertips, you can group sides into broad tiers based on season reviews and available stats: those with above‑average dead‑ball concession rates, those roughly in line with the league, and those who rarely concede from such situations.

Matchup type	Example pattern (2024/2025 data and reports)	Implication for “betting against” weak side
Weak set‑piece defence vs strong set‑piece attack	Forest or high‑conceding sides vs Arsenal / Brentford	High value in set‑piece/defender‑goal props
Weak set‑piece defence vs average attack	Arsenal vs mid‑table teams with modest dead‑ball threat	Smaller edge; consider in‑play if corners rise
Average defence vs elite set‑piece attack	Mid‑table side vs specialist team (e.g. Palace, Everton in attack)	Potential but more price‑sensitive

This kind of categorisation clarifies your reasoning. When both sides of the equation point to dead‑ball events—vulnerable defenders and well‑drilled attackers—you have a stronger cause‑and‑effect chain for backing set‑piece‑related outcomes. In less extreme matchups, you might wait for in‑play confirmation via corner counts or pressure metrics before committing to specials, reducing exposure to matches where the ball simply never spends enough time in the right zones.

Pre-match and in-play angles that stem from set-piece leaks

Set‑piece weaknesses can inform both pre‑match and in‑play strategies. Pre‑match, you can target method‑of‑goal props, “defender to score” at long odds, or higher alternate‑corner totals when a weak set‑piece side is expected to defend deep for extended periods. In‑play, rising corner counts or repeated fouls near the box against that team make marginal pre‑match edges more compelling; each additional dead‑ball event increases the chance that structural vulnerability will manifest.

Conversely, if a supposedly fragile side concedes few corners and restricts deliveries into their box over the first hour, it may be wise to scale back expectations for set‑piece goals despite the pre‑match narrative. This flexibility is crucial, because even strong statistical edges can fail on a given day when match tempo, refereeing style, or weather conditions reduce the number and quality of dead‑ball opportunities.

Conditional scenarios: league position and psychological context

League context changes how set‑piece leaks play out over time. In the middle of the season, a team with clear dead‑ball issues may accept slow incremental fixes, maintaining roughly the same risk profile for several months. Near the end, relegation pressure or title races can prompt tactical shifts—extra defenders, changed marking schemes—that either temporarily shore up the weakness or, under stress, make it worse.

Bettors who keep track of these adjustments through match reports and tactical pieces are better positioned than those who treat early‑season numbers as static. If a club changes set‑piece coach or clearly alters its corner setup and then concedes fewer chances from those situations across several matches, stubbornly “betting against” them on outdated data becomes a liability rather than an edge.

Interaction with broader gambling behaviour and casino online play

Set‑piece‑focused strategies operate best when they are part of a disciplined betting plan, not as isolated long‑shot punts added on top of volatile habits. Because specials often carry appealing odds, there is a temptation to over‑stake or to chase after near misses—late corners or disallowed goals—especially when emotions are already heightened by other bets. Without structured tracking, it becomes difficult to know whether your “against set‑piece‑weak teams” angle genuinely holds value or simply mirrors general variance.

If you also spend time in a casino online context, separating bankrolls and records for football props and high‑variance games helps preserve analytical clarity. Treating your Premier League 2024/2025 work on set pieces as its own project—with recorded stake sizes, odds, and results—allows you to assess whether targeting defensive weaknesses actually improves your long‑term performance. That separation reduces the risk that casino swings or emotional streaks will dictate how aggressively you exploit structural leaks in set‑piece defence.

Summary

In a Premier League season where set‑piece goals continue to rise, teams that concede disproportionately from dead‑ball situations—whether struggling clubs or elite sides with phase‑specific flaws—offer a rational target for contrarian betting. By identifying which defences leak from corners and free‑kicks, matching them with opponents that generate strong set‑piece threat, and then using that insight to drive specific specials and selective “against” positions, bettors can move beyond broad reputations into phase‑driven edges. The strategy works best when regularly updated for tactical changes, grounded in tracked results, and insulated from unrelated gambling swings, turning a narrow tactical weakness into a repeatable part of a structured 2024/2025 betting approach.